The Optimal Dynamic Infant Industry Protection in
Joining a Free Trade Agreement:
A Numerical Analysis of
the Vietnamese Motorcycle Industry

Tran Lam Anh Duong

May 2011


This paper investigates the optimal dynamic paths of trade protection imposed on infant industries during the process of joining a free trade agreement. The framework is based on the dynamic learning-by-doing model developed in Melitz (2005), where industries are experiencing dynamic externalities. In this framework, restricted-time protection is introduced as a realistic approach to correspond to the conditions of actual agreements. According to the computational analysis, in some feasible cases of optimal tariff paths may not follow a downward trend, as conventional wisdom would suggest. The results of the numerical simulation applied to the Vietnamese motorcycle industry support these findings.

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